Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Nicaragua 0–3 Costa Rica. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Nicaragua host Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 10:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Costa Rica win, with its expected-goals figures pointing to a larger projected scoring contribution from Costa Rica.
The match is at Nicaragua National Football Stadium, Managua. The probabilities are estimates: the forecast favours an away win, while keeping a draw and a home win in its range of possible outcomes. The model's goals outlook is close, with neither over nor under clearly favoured.
What the model expects
The model gives Nicaragua 18.3%, a draw 24% and Costa Rica 57.7%. Expected goals are 0.8 for Nicaragua and 1.7 for Costa Rica, projecting more scoring for the visitors. The model's lean is Costa Rica to win; that is a direction in the forecast, not a promise of a particular result or scoreline.
The model has over 2.5 goals at 49.3% and under 2.5 goals at 50.7%. It gives both teams a goal in 48.5% of outcomes; in 51.5%, at least one side fails to score. The likeliest exact scores are 0-1 (14%), 0-2 (11%) and 0-0 (10%). The first two have Nicaragua failing to score, while the third is a goalless draw. These are individual scoreline possibilities within a wider forecast that also includes a Nicaragua win and other outcomes. The spread across the listed scorelines captures different ways the game could develop, rather than narrowing the prediction to one exact result.