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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Nicaragua 0-3 Costa Rica: Match Analysis & Model Review

Nicaragua 0-3 Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League, Thursday, October 1: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Costa Rica beat Nicaragua 0-3 in the CONCACAF Nations League, turning a goalless first half into a decisive second-half result. The scoreline reflected a match in which Costa Rica had more of the ball and produced more attempts, while Nicaragua did not score.

The teams were level at the break, but the deadlock did not last long after the restart. Costa Rica scored in quick succession and added a late goal to complete a 3-0 win for Costa Rica over Nicaragua.

How it unfolded

The teams reached half-time at 0-0, with neither having scored. Orlando Sinclair put Costa Rica ahead in the 57th minute, making it 0-1; Carlos Mora followed in the 60th minute to extend the lead to 0-2.

Kenyel vargas scored in the 90th minute (+7) for 0-3. Only Costa Rica ever led, and Costa Rica’s advantage eventually reached a three-goal lead at 0-3.

The numbers

Costa Rica had 64% possession against Nicaragua’s 36%, and led the shot count 13 to 4. The difference was also clear in efforts on target: Costa Rica recorded 6, while Nicaragua managed 1.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The corner count was 6 for Costa Rica and 4 for Nicaragua. Nicaragua’s goalkeeper made 3 saves; Costa Rica’s made 1. Those figures accompany a match in which Costa Rica scored three goals, Nicaragua scored no goals, and the total was three goals. Costa Rica’s control of possession and advantage in attempts were matched by the goals on the scoreboard.

Standout performers

Yerlan Sosa was Costa Rica’s best-rated player, earning 8.9 and recording 2 assists. K. Cole was Nicaragua’s highest-rated player, with 6.5.

Yerlan Sosa’s assists put him among the contributors to Costa Rica’s scoring, while K. Cole had the standout rating for a Nicaragua side that finished without a goal. The ratings mark the teams’ highest-rated players without obscuring the decisive collective difference: Costa Rica found the net and Nicaragua did not.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave Nicaragua a win probability of 13.9%, a draw 20.6%, and a Costa Rica win 65.5%. These are estimates, and the model’s likeliest outcome was Costa Rica to win.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The match result therefore matched the model’s pre-match pick, with Costa Rica’s goals after the interval settling the contest.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Nicaragua vs Costa Rica

Thu, Oct 1 · 10:00 PM ET · Nicaragua National Football Stadium

Full time

0–3

Half-time 0–0

  • 57'Orlando Sinclair0–1
  • 60'Carlos Mora0–2
  • 90'+7kenyel vargas0–3

The model before the game

Nicaragua
13.9%
Draw
20.6%
Costa Rica
65.5%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

NicaraguaStatisticCosta Rica
3saves1
4shots13
4corners6
36%possession64%
1shots on target6
Open the Match Center

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