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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia: Match Analysis & Model Review

NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia played out a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, finishing 1-1 after Levski led at the interval. Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno put Levski ahead, and Tjaronn Chery brought NEC level after the break. The scoreline held despite NEC producing more shots and a higher expected-goals total.

Only Levski Sofia ever led; the score was levelled once. The final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score, with two goals in all. NEC’s chance creation offered a route to victory, but Levski’s resistance kept the visitors in the contest until the equaliser settled the scoring.

How it unfolded

Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno scored for Levski Sofia in the 35th minute, putting Levski ahead at 0-1. The score remained 0-1 at half-time. In the 64th minute, Tjaronn Chery scored for NEC Nijmegen to make it 1-1; there were no further goals.

The numbers

NEC registered 18 shots, with 9 on target. Levski recorded 8 attempts and 2 shots on target. The expected-goals totals were 2.16 for NEC and 1.28 for Levski. NEC’s greater shot volume and expected-goals return did not translate into a winning margin, while Levski made the most of its opportunity to take the lead.

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Possession was 51% for NEC and 49% for Levski. NEC earned 6 corners to Levski’s 1, and the save totals were 1 for NEC and 8 for Levski. Those figures point to sustained work for Levski’s goalkeeper as NEC pressed for a breakthrough, with the visitors still finding a goal of their own before the interval.

The goals tally was one goal for NEC and one goal for Levski. The figures show a match in which NEC had more of the attacking volume, but both sides scored and neither could add a decisive goal after the equaliser.

Standout performers

Levski’s best-rated player was S. Vutsov, rated 8.4 with 1 assist. NEC’s standout was T. Chery, rated 7.9 with 1 goal. Chery’s goal brought NEC back into the match, while Vutsov’s assist was a key contribution to Levski’s opener.

The ratings reflect their direct involvement in the scoring: Chery supplied NEC’s equaliser, and Vutsov registered the assist for the goal that gave Levski its lead. Their contributions shaped the decisive moments in a match where the score stayed level after the second goal.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave NEC a 48.1% chance of winning, a draw 26.5%, and Levski a 25.4% chance. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was NEC Nijmegen to win, and it assigned the actual result 26.5%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score, so the exact scoreline matched the model’s leading score call even though the outcome did not match its most likely result.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia

Thu, Oct 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Stadion de Goffert

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 35'Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno0–1
  • 64'Tjaronn Chery1–1

The model before the game

NEC Nijmegen
48.1%
Draw
26.5%
Levski Sofia
25.4%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

NEC NijmegenStatisticLevski Sofia
1saves8
18shots8
6corners1
51%possession49%
2.16expected goals1.28
9shots on target2
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