Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: Air Force Falcons 14–9 Navy Midshipmen. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Navy Midshipmen visit the Air Force Falcons in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 12:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives the Air Force Falcons the likelier result, while the Air Force Falcons have the better record. The matchup pairs a projected scoring advantage for the Air Force Falcons with a recent road win for the Falcons, setting up a game where the model’s forecast and the teams’ season records point in the same direction.
What the model expects
The model gives the Air Force Falcons a 71.5% chance to win and the Navy Midshipmen a 28.5% chance. The model’s likelier result is an Air Force Falcons win; these probabilities are estimates, not certainties. The model projects Air Force Falcons 32.2 points and Navy Midshipmen 24.8, with 57 in all. Its projected margin is the Air Force Falcons by 7.4 points.
That forecast gives the Falcons the larger share of the projected scoring, while the Navy’s projected total keeps the visitors in the game’s scoring picture. The overall projection points to a game with scoring from both teams rather than a one-sided expectation on the scoreboard. The model’s expected result remains a Falcons win, and its point forecast gives the matchup a clear projected shape without making the outcome certain.