Internal use only
Skip to main content
GoalorithmSports intelligence
All Sports

NFL

GamesPredictionsParlay BuilderMy PicksBetting JournalResults

Intelligence

NewsModel PerformanceData Health

Explore

StandingsValue Scan

Build your edge

Understand every number behind the call.

Learn the numbers Explore membership

Gridiron intelligence

News

All sportsFootballBasketballMLBNFL

NFL

News

All sportsFootballBasketballMLBNFL
GOALORITHM / NFL

Game analysis · college football

Research workspace

Air Force Falcons 14-9 Navy Midshipmen: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 14-9 win for the Air Force Falcons over the Navy Midshipmen in college football, Saturday, October 3: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

← All news
Home / News / NFL & college / Game analysis

Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The Air Force Falcons beat the Navy Midshipmen 14-9 in college football on Saturday, October 3. The Air Force Falcons finished with 188 rushing yards and 17 first downs, while the Navy Midshipmen had 143 net passing yards. The Air Force Falcons won by five points.

The numbers

The Air Force Falcons totaled 270 yards, including 82 net passing yards and 188 rushing yards. The Navy Midshipmen totaled 253 yards, with 143 net passing yards and 110 rushing yards.

The Air Force Falcons had 2 turnovers and 17 first downs; the Navy Midshipmen had 1 turnover and 11 first downs. The Air Force Falcons possessed the ball for 36:01, and the Navy Midshipmen for 23:59. On third down, the Air Force Falcons converted 50%; the Navy Midshipmen converted 9.1%.

Top performers

For the Air Force Falcons, Liam Szarka completed 6 of 11 passes for 82 yards, with 2 interceptions, and Liam Szarka ran for 81 yards on 25 carries, with 2 touchdowns. Air Force Falcons receiver Jonah Dawson caught 3 passes for 39 yards; defender Max Mustell had a sack.

More NFL & college football news

All news →

American footballPreview· college football

New Mexico State Aggies vs Florida International Panthers Prediction & Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers in college football, Wednesday, October 7. Goalorithm's model makes a Florida International Panthers win the likelier result at 78%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Wed, Oct 7 · 7:30 PM ET

American footballPreview· college football

Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction & Preview

Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in college football, Thursday, October 8. Goalorithm's model makes a Missouri State Bears win the likelier result at 65.2%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Predictions
Games
Standings

For the Navy Midshipmen, Jackson Gutierrez completed 7 of 15 passes for 140 yards, with a touchdown, while Michael Barrow ran for 44 yards on 9 carries. Navy Midshipmen receiver Truman Brasfield caught 1 pass for 68 yards, with a touchdown; defender Phillip Hamilton had an interception. Navy Midshipmen kicker Nolan Bartley made 1 of 2 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pregame estimates gave the Air Force Falcons 71.5% to win and the Navy Midshipmen 28.5%. The model's favorite was the Air Force Falcons to win; the model's favorite won.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen

Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET

Final

14–9

The model before the game

Air Force Falcons
71.5%
Navy Midshipmen
28.5%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

Air Force FalconsStatisticNavy Midshipmen
2turnovers1
17first downs11
270total yards253
188rushing yards110
82net passing yards143
36:01time of possession23:59
50%third-down conversion rate9.1%
Open the Game Center

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET

American footballPreview· college football

Sam Houston Bearkats vs Liberty Flames Prediction & Preview

Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty Flames in college football, Thursday, October 8. Goalorithm's model makes a Liberty Flames win the likelier result at 78.7%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET

American footballPreview· college football

South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners Prediction & Preview

South Florida Bulls at UTSA Roadrunners in college football, Thursday, October 8. Goalorithm's model makes a South Florida Bulls win the likelier result at 73.8%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET