Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Nashville SC host Sporting Kansas City in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET. The sides arrive from contrasting recent outings: a 4-1 away win against Austin on October 10, while a 3-3 home draw with Portland Timbers on October 10. Goalorithm’s model points to a strong attacking contribution from Nashville, with its leading scorelines all putting the home side ahead.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Nashville SC win (73.8%), then a draw (14.1%), then a Sporting Kansas City win (12.1%), and its lean is Nashville SC to win.
Expected goals are 2.8 for Nashville SC and 0.9 for Sporting Kansas City. The goals projection is over 2.5 goals at 70.3% and under 2.5 goals at 29.6%; the model gives both teams a chance to score at 56.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 43.8%.
The leading projected scores are 2-0 at 9.5%, 2-1 at 8.4% and 3-0 at 8.4%. The projections include both a Nashville clean sheet and a scoreline with goals for each team. Taken together, the model’s outlook centres on Nashville’s expected scoring output, while retaining a possibility of goals at both ends.
Form and standings
Nashville SC have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, with 12 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest result was a 4-1 away win against Austin on October 10, and they are on 3 wins in a row. They sit 1st in Eastern Conference in the Eastern Conference with 63 points from 28 games.