Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Monza host Napoli in Serie A on Wednesday, October 28, with kick-off at 3:45 p.m. ET. The model makes Napoli the likeliest winner, though its expected-goals figure is level for the sides, leaving a fixture where the outcome forecast and the projected scoring balance tell distinct parts of the story.
Monza arrive after a 3-1 away defeat to Lazio on October 11, while Napoli come off a 1-0 away defeat to Venezia on October 17. Both have a defeat in their latest listed result, so the match begins with neither side carrying a win from its most recent outing.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Monza 30.8%, a draw 17.3% and Napoli 51.9%; its likeliest result is a Napoli win. The expected-goals figures are Monza 1.6 and Napoli 1.6, a level projection that sits alongside the model's preference for an away win.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 60.6% and under 2.5 goals at 39.4%. It gives both teams to score 62.6%, with 37.4% for at least one side failing to score. Those projections point to the possibility of goals at both ends, without making that outcome certain.
The likeliest scorelines are 0-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.2%) and 1-2 (7.9%). The leading score forecasts are narrow margins, while the broader outcome probabilities put a Napoli win first.
Form and standings
Monza’s recent sequence is LWLDL. Across that run, Monza recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. Its latest result was a 3-1 away defeat to Lazio on October 11, a setback to take into this fixture.