Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Manchester United host Bournemouth in the Premier League on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET at Old Trafford, Manchester. The model’s likeliest result is a Manchester United win, while its goals outlook points to a contest with scoring possibilities at both ends. The teams arrive after a 1-1 away draw with Leeds on October 18 and a 2-0 home win against Sunderland on October 18, respectively.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Manchester United 50.9%, a draw 23.1% and Bournemouth 26%; its ordering is a Manchester United win (50.9%), then a Bournemouth win (26%), then a draw (23.1%). Its expected-goals figures are 2.6 for Manchester United and 1.4 for Bournemouth. The leading exact-score estimate is 2-1 at 8.5%, followed by 1-1 at 8.1% and 3-1 at 7.2%.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 74.2% and under 2.5 goals at 25.8%, with a lean towards over 2.5 goals. It assigns 67.9% to both teams scoring and 32.1% to at least one side failing to score. Those figures present a clear expectation of goals, while the exact-score estimates offer several possible paths through the match.
Form and standings
Manchester United have 4 draws and 1 defeat across their last 5 games, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their sequence is DDDLD, listed most recent first, and they are unbeaten in their last 3. The latest entry is a 1-1 away draw with Leeds on October 18, a result that leaves their recent record characterised by draws and a defeat.