Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Malta 1–1 Gibraltar. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Malta host Gibraltar in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the model pointing to a home win as the clearest outcome. Malta arrive off a win over Andorra, while Gibraltar’s latest match was a goalless draw with the same opponent.
The match is at Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali. The model's estimates put Malta in front of the other outcomes, but leave room for a draw and assign Gibraltar a smaller chance of victory.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Malta win (70.8%), then a draw (20%), then a Gibraltar win (9.2%). Those probabilities are estimates. The model's lean is Malta to win, and its expected-goals figures are Malta 2 and Gibraltar 0.4, a projection that points to a substantial difference in scoring expectation.
The model puts under 2.5 goals at 57.7% and over 2.5 goals at 42.3%. It gives both teams a goal in 27.6%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 72.4%; that does not mean a goalless draw. The leading exact-score projections are 1-0 (18.2%), 2-0 (17.2%) and 0-0 (12.7%).
The bookmakers' outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Malta win (74.3%), then a draw (17.7%), then a Gibraltar win (8%). The model's view against that market is the model gives a Malta win 70.8%, below the bookmakers' 74.3%.