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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Malta 1-1 Gibraltar: Match Analysis & Model Review

Malta 1-1 Gibraltar in the UEFA Nations League, Thursday, October 1: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Malta and Gibraltar finished level at 1-1 in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with a 1-1 draw after a goalless first half. Each side scored one goal, making two goals across the match.

The draw came despite the pre-match model identifying a Malta to win as its most likely outcome. The scoreline left the match without a winner, while the figures show Malta recorded more of the possession and attacking attempts.

How it unfolded

The teams reached half-time at 0-0. The available match facts confirm that Malta and Gibraltar each scored one goal, but do not give the goals' timing or order, so the scoring sequence cannot be established.

Malta registered 7 shots, including 4 on target; Gibraltar had 4 shots, with 1 on target. The match ended 1-1.

The numbers

Possession was 64% for Malta and 36% for Gibraltar. The shot counts were 7 and 4, and the on-target totals were 4 and 1. Those figures describe a match in which Malta had the larger share of the ball and more attempts, but the teams finished level.

Malta won 4 corners and Gibraltar won 1. The saves tally was 1 for Malta and 3 for Gibraltar. Together, the recorded attempts, corners and saves offer the statistical outline of the contest; none changed the final score from 1-1.

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Standout performers

Gibraltar's best-rated player was J. Hankins, with a rating of 7.7. For Malta, the best rating went to I. Chouaref, who received 7.3.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Malta a win probability of 72.8%, a draw 19% and a Gibraltar win 8.2%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely result was Malta to win, and it assigned the actual outcome a probability of 19%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

That call contrasts with the match's recorded balance: Malta had 64% possession and 7 shots, while Gibraltar had 36% possession and 4 shots. The final score was 1-1, rather than the model's most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Malta vs Gibraltar

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:45 PM ET · Ta'Qali National Stadium

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

Malta
72.8%
Draw
19%
Gibraltar
8.2%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

MaltaStatisticGibraltar
1saves3
7shots4
4corners1
64%possession36%
4shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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