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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Lyon 3-2 Crystal Palace: Match Analysis & Model Review

Lyon 3-2 Crystal Palace in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 3-2 win for Lyon over Crystal Palace in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, finishing Lyon 3-2 Crystal Palace. Lyon established control of the score early, went into the interval ahead and had to withstand two replies from Crystal Palace after the break. The result was settled by Lyon's ability to restore its advantage after Crystal Palace had made the contest close.

At half-time, the score was 2-0. Lyon held the lead throughout, and the final reply from Crystal Palace left Lyon defending a narrow margin until the end. The goals came in a clear sequence: Lyon scored twice before Crystal Palace got on the board, then each side added another.

How it unfolded

Corentin Tolisso opened the scoring for Lyon in the 8th minute, making it 1-0. Lyon extended the lead through Ernest Nuamah in the 45th minute (+2), reaching the interval at 2-0. Lyon had held a two-goal lead at 2-0.

Crystal Palace responded in the 50th minute, when Yeremy Pino made it 2-1. Lyon restored its advantage in the 76th minute; Pavel Šulc put the score at 3-1. The final goal came in the 81st minute, with Daichi Kamada bringing Crystal Palace to 3-2. The late strike narrowed the gap, but could not prevent Lyon from taking the result.

The numbers

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

Lyon had 11 shots and Crystal Palace had 12; both sides registered 4 shots on target for Lyon and 4 for Crystal Palace. Possession was 51% for Lyon and 49% for Crystal Palace. Expected goals came to 1.79 for Lyon and 1.63 for Crystal Palace.

The corner count was 5 for Lyon and 3 for Crystal Palace. Goalkeepers made 2 saves for Lyon and 1 for Crystal Palace. The match produced five goals in all. The figures record an open scoring sequence, with both teams getting on the scoresheet after the interval and Lyon preserving its lead.

Standout performers

Keito Nakamura was Lyon's best-rated player, earning 8.1 and recording 2 assists. A. Wharton led Crystal Palace's ratings with 7.7 and 1 assist. Those contributions provide a clear individual mark on a match in which both teams scored and the lead remained with Lyon.

How the model called it

The probabilities are estimates. Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Lyon a win probability of 37.1%, a draw probability of 26.5% and Crystal Palace a win probability of 36.4%. Its most likely outcome was Lyon to win, and it assigned the actual result a probability of 37.1%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

The model's pre-match call was borne out by the result. Lyon converted its lead into a win, while Crystal Palace's replies kept the contest alive through the closing stages.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Lyon vs Crystal Palace

Thu, Oct 15 · 12:45 PM ET · Groupama Stadium

Full time

3–2

Half-time 2–0

  • 8'Corentin Tolisso1–0
  • 45'+2Ernest Nuamah2–0
  • 50'Yeremy Pino2–1
  • 76'Pavel Šulc3–1
  • 81'Daichi Kamada3–2

The model before the game

Lyon
37.1%
Draw
26.5%
Crystal Palace
36.4%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

LyonStatisticCrystal Palace
2saves1
11shots12
5corners3
51%possession49%
1.79expected goals1.63
4shots on target4
Open the Match Center

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