Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Liverpool host Brighton in the Premier League on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model makes Liverpool likeliest to win, but its forecast also points to goals at both ends and a lively contest.
Brighton arrive on a sustained winning run, while Liverpool come into the fixture after a win of their own. The table has Brighton sit above Liverpool, setting up a meeting between sides whose recent results and model projections tell different parts of the story.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Liverpool win (45.2%), then a Brighton win (30.6%), then a draw (24.1%). These probabilities are estimates. Its goals outlook leans towards over 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69.8% and under 2.5 goals at 30.2%; it gives both teams a 67.4% chance of scoring, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 32.6%.
Expected goals stand at 2.2 for Liverpool and 1.4 for Brighton. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 9.7%, followed by 2-1 at 8.7% and 3-1 at 6.4%. Those scorelines all have Liverpool ahead or level, while the broader forecast leaves a substantial chance of a Brighton victory.
Form and standings
Liverpool’s recent sequence is WLWDW, amounting to 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-1 away win against Brentford on October 17. That gives them a positive result to carry into this match, though their recent record also includes a defeat.