Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Lithuania host Azerbaijan in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with kick-off at 9:00 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Lithuania win, though its leading exact-score predictions include a draw as well as a home win. The match will be played at Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome ordering is a Lithuania win (42.6%), then a draw (31.2%), then an Azerbaijan win (26.2%). Its goals forecast leans towards under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 goals at 67.9%, while over 2.5 goals at 32.1%.
The expected-goals projection is 1.2 for Lithuania and 0.8 for Azerbaijan. The model gives both teams a goal 38.1%, and assigns 61.9% to at least one side failing to score. Those are separate views of how the match could unfold: the latter includes games in which one team scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw.
The leading exact scores are 0-0 at 18.5%, 1-0 at 14.9% and 1-1 at 11.7%. The list spans a goalless draw, a home win without conceding and a draw in which both teams score. It offers several possible shapes for the game rather than pointing to one certain scoreline.