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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan: Match Analysis & Model Review

Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan in the UEFA Nations League, Sunday, September 27: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Lithuania and Azerbaijan shared a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with the score already level at half-time. A. Kučys put Lithuania ahead from the penalty spot, but Mahir Emreli equalised for Azerbaijan; neither side found another goal.

The early exchange accounted for all the scoring, and the match ended with the teams level. Only Lithuania ever led; the score was levelled once. The draw leaves the clearest account of the game in its opening spell: one side moved in front, the other answered, and the score remained unchanged thereafter.

How it unfolded

A. Kučys converted a penalty for Lithuania in the 9th minute, making it 1-0. Azerbaijan responded in the 14th minute, when Mahir Emreli scored to make it 1-1.

The goals came in quick succession. The match reached half-time at 1-1, and there was no further change to the score after the interval. The sequence of the goals was also the full story of the lead: only Lithuania ever led; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

There were two goals in all: Lithuania scored one goal and Azerbaijan scored one goal. Both sides registered 5 shots, while shots on target came to 2 for Lithuania and 3 for Azerbaijan. The figures show that each team produced the same overall shot count, with the on-target totals also recording the attempts that tested the goalkeepers.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Possession was 48% for Lithuania and 52% for Azerbaijan. Lithuania had 0 corners to Azerbaijan's 2, while the saves figures were 2 for Lithuania and 1 for Azerbaijan. The match statistics sit alongside a scoreline shaped by the goals before the break; after the equaliser, neither team added to its tally.

Standout performers

M. Emreli was Azerbaijan's best-rated player, earning 7.9 and scoring 1 goal. His goal was the equaliser that brought Azerbaijan back level after conceding.

E. Utkus was Lithuania's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.0.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Lithuania a win probability of 38.2%, a draw 30.4%, and an Azerbaijan win 31.4%; its most likely outcome was Lithuania to win.

The model assigned the actual result a probability of 30.4%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score 1-1 was the model's 3rd-likeliest score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Lithuania vs Azerbaijan

Sun, Sep 27 · 9:00 AM ET · Dariaus ir Girėno stadionas

Full time

1–1

Half-time 1–1

  • 9'A. Kučys (penalty)1–0
  • 14'Mahir Emreli1–1

The model before the game

Lithuania
38.2%
Draw
30.4%
Azerbaijan
31.4%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

LithuaniaStatisticAzerbaijan
2saves1
5shots5
0corners2
48%possession52%
2shots on target3
Open the Match Center

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