Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Lithuania 3–0 Andorra. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Lithuania host Andorra in a friendly on Wednesday, September 30 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model places a draw at the top of its outcome order, with a draw (36.1%), then a Lithuania win (35.1%), then an Andorra win (28.7%). The forecast also points towards a low-scoring match, while both teams arrive after defeats in their latest listed games.
What the model expects
The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its outcome order is a draw (36.1%), then a Lithuania win (35.1%), then an Andorra win (28.7%), with a draw the likeliest result. The forecast does not put a single outcome far ahead of the others, making the prospect of a draw central to the model’s view of this fixture.
The goals forecast is under 2.5 goals at 74.4%, against over 2.5 goals at 25.6%. The model gives both teams to score 33.8%, while its estimate for at least one side to fail to score is 66.2%. Those figures describe a forecast in which a clean sheet for at least one team is more likely than both sides scoring.
Expected goals are Lithuania 0.9 and Andorra 0.8. The likeliest scores are 0-0 (23.9%), 1-0 (14.8%) and 0-1 (12.7%). The score predictions include a goalless draw, as well as a narrow win for either side.