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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Lithuania 3-0 Andorra: Match Analysis & Model Review

Lithuania 3-0 Andorra in a friendly, Wednesday, September 30: how the goals came and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Lithuania defeated Andorra in a friendly on Wednesday, September 30, finishing with 3-0. The result was a 3-0 win for Lithuania over Andorra, with Lithuania already ahead 2-0 at the break and adding a late goal.

The scoring came in distinct spells: Lithuania went in front from the penalty spot, doubled the lead before half-time, then completed the score in added time. Andorra finished without a goal, while Lithuania’s advantage reached a three-goal lead.

How it unfolded

M. Ruzgis put Lithuania ahead in the 21st minute, scoring a penalty to make it 1-0. The opener established the first lead of the match; only Lithuania ever led.

F. Steponavicius added Lithuania’s second in the 27th minute, changing the score to 2-0. That goal arrived before the interval, and the teams went into half-time with Lithuania holding the same advantage.

The final goal came in the 90th minute (+3). A. Kucys scored for Lithuania to make it 3-0, completing the scoring and setting the final margin. The goal arrived after the first-half strikes and left Andorra with no reply.

The numbers

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Lithuania scored three goals and Andorra scored no goals, for three goals in all. Lithuania held the match’s biggest lead, a three-goal lead at 3-0.

The scoreline records a clean division of the goals: all of them went to Lithuania. The half-time score shows that Lithuania’s advantage was already established before the late goal, which added to the margin rather than changing which team was in front.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model gave Lithuania a 54.5% chance of winning, a draw 28.2% chance and Andorra a 17.2% chance of winning. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Lithuania to win, and it gave the actual result a 54.5% chance.

The match finished with the outcome the model had identified as most likely: the model's most likely outcome happened. Lithuania’s win therefore matched the model’s pre-match call, while the scoreline itself was settled by the goals recorded during the game.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Lithuania vs Andorra

Wed, Sep 30 · 12:00 PM ET · Steponas Darius and Stasys Girenas Stadium

Full time

3–0

Half-time 2–0

  • 21'M. Ruzgis (penalty)1–0
  • 27'F. Steponavicius2–0
  • 90'+3A. Kucys3–0

The model before the game

Lithuania
54.6%
Draw
28.2%
Andorra
17.2%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

Open the Match Center

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