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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen: Match Analysis & Model Review

Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Bayer Leverkusen beat Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with the match ending 0-4. A penalty from Patrik Schick opened the scoring, and Bayer Leverkusen had established a 0-3 advantage by half-time; Ibrahim Maza completed the scoring late on.

The result reflected an attacking display from Bayer Leverkusen: they recorded four goals, while Lech Poznan finished with no goals. Patrik Schick scored two goals, and Bayer Leverkusen’s biggest advantage was a four-goal lead.

How it unfolded

Patrik Schick converted a penalty in the 29th minute to put Bayer Leverkusen ahead at 0-1. Malik Tillman made it 0-2 in the 32nd minute, then Patrik Schick scored from the penalty spot again in the 41st minute for 0-3.

Ibrahim Maza added the final goal in the 88th minute, making it 0-4. The match’s lead pattern was clear: only Bayer Leverkusen ever led.

The numbers

Bayer Leverkusen had 61% possession and Lech Poznan 39%. The shot count was 22 for Bayer Leverkusen and 10 for Lech Poznan, with 10 efforts on target for Bayer Leverkusen and 3 for Lech Poznan. Expected goals stood at 5.4 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.54 for Lech Poznan.

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Predictions
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The corner count was 5 for Bayer Leverkusen and 4 for Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan made 7 saves, while Bayer Leverkusen made 3. Together, the possession, shot and expected-goals figures describe a substantial attacking contribution from Bayer Leverkusen; Lech Poznan’s goalkeeper was called on to make the listed saves. The figures also show that Lech Poznan registered shots on target, but the side ended without a goal.

Standout performers

P. Schick was Bayer Leverkusen’s best-rated player, with a score of 8.5 and 2 goals. P. Schick’s brace included both penalties, and the two goals came during the first-half scoring sequence.

M. Ishak was Lech Poznan’s best-rated player, receiving 6.8. Lech Poznan did not find the net, while Bayer Leverkusen scored through three different players.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, the model’s estimates gave Lech Poznan a 16.7% chance of winning, the draw 21.1%, and Bayer Leverkusen a 62.2% chance. Its most likely outcome was Bayer Leverkusen to win, and it assigned the eventual outcome 62.2%. These probabilities are estimates.

The result matched the model’s call: the model's most likely outcome happened. The first-half goals established the lead, and Bayer Leverkusen added another late in the match.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Thu, Oct 15 · 12:45 PM ET · Stadion Miejski

Full time

0–4

Half-time 0–3

  • 29'Patrik Schick (penalty)0–1
  • 32'Malik Tillman0–2
  • 41'Patrik Schick (penalty)0–3
  • 88'Ibrahim Maza0–4

The model before the game

Lech Poznan
16.7%
Draw
21.1%
Bayer Leverkusen
62.2%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Lech PoznanStatisticBayer Leverkusen
7saves3
10shots22
4corners5
39%possession61%
0.54expected goals5.4
3shots on target10
Open the Match Center

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