Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Latvia 0–0 Cyprus. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Latvia host Cyprus in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Latvia win, but its full ordering is a Latvia win (36.4%), then a Cyprus win (34.3%), then a draw (29.3%), with all outcomes prominent in the forecast.
Goalorithm's probabilities are estimates. The numbers point to a closely balanced match, with the model projecting 1.1 expected goals for Latvia and 1.1 for Cyprus. Its goals forecast leans towards a lower-scoring game, rather than a high total.
What the model expects
The model's lean is under 2.5 goals. Its total-goals estimates are under 2.5 goals at 63.1% and over 2.5 goals at 36.9%; it gives 56.2% to at least one side failing to score and 43.8% to both teams scoring. These are separate views: the first concerns the match's combined goals, while the latter estimates concern whether each team gets on the scoresheet.
The leading exact-score estimate is 0-0 at 15.9%, followed by 1-1 at 12.4% and 1-0 at 11.3%. The model therefore includes both a scoreless draw and outcomes with a goal for each side among its likeliest scorelines. Its overall outcome forecast still identifies a Latvia win as the likeliest result; the score estimates offer a more specific view of possible ways the match could unfold.
For context, the model gives a Latvia win 36.4%, in line with the bookmakers' 36.2%. The model's forecast and the bookmakers' assessment are close on that outcome, while the model's own ordering of results is set out above.