Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Juventus host Lazio in Serie A on Sunday, October 18 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the sides arriving on different recent runs and separated in the table. The model makes Juventus likeliest to win, while its expected-goals figures assign Juventus 1 and Lazio 1.
What the model expects
The model gives the outcomes in this order: a Juventus win (51.2%), then a draw (25.3%), then a Lazio win (23.5%). These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a Juventus win; its expected-goals figures are Juventus 1 and Lazio 1.
The model leans towards a restrained total: under 2.5 goals at 69.9%, against over 2.5 goals at 30.1%. It gives 37.5% to both teams scoring and 62.5% to at least one side failing to score. That latter outcome does not mean a goalless draw; it includes any score where one team does not find the net.
The scorelines the model rates most likely are 0-1 at 16.9%, 1-0 at 16.9% and 0-0 at 13.2%. The first two have the same probability, while the goalless draw is also among the leading possibilities. The figures point to a restrained scoring outlook rather than an expectation of an open game.
The bookmakers' implied ordering is a Juventus win (57%), then a draw (24.8%), then a Lazio win (18.2%). Against that, the model gives a Juventus win 51.2%, below the bookmakers' 57%. The gap is a difference in how strongly the two assessments rate a home win, rather than a disagreement over which outcome comes first.