Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Udinese host Lecce in Serie A on Sunday, October 18, with the model leaning towards the home side despite a narrow gap between the teams in the table. Udinese arrive after a 2-1 away defeat to Torino on October 12, while Lecce were beaten by Bologna in their latest outing, a 2-1 home defeat to Bologna on October 11; both sides are looking to arrest a run of defeats.
What the model expects
The model gives Udinese 47.8%, the draw 27.1% and Lecce 25.1%; these are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Udinese win, although the outcome sequence is a Udinese win (47.8%), then a draw (27.1%), then a Lecce win (25.1%). The comparison reads as follows: the model gives a Udinese win 47.8%, below the bookmakers' 50.8%.
The goals figures point towards a restrained contest: under 2.5 goals at 71%, against over 2.5 goals at 29%. The model has both teams scoring at 36.4% and at least one side failing to score at 63.5%. Expected goals are level, with Udinese at 0.9 and Lecce at 0.9. The leading correct-score possibilities are 0-1 (17.2%), 1-0 (17.2%) and 0-0 (13.9%), a set that also leaves room for a tight game with little between the sides.
Form and standings
Udinese are 15th in Serie A with 4 points from 6 games, while Lecce are 13th in Serie A with 6 points from 6 games; Lecce sit above Udinese. Across their latest 5 games, Udinese have 1 win and 4 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 12 conceded. The sequence is LLLLW, listed most recent first, and the current run is 4 defeats in a row.