Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
AS Roma host Genoa in Serie A on Saturday, October 17 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the sides arriving from contrasting spells of form. AS Roma are 3rd in Serie A with 14 points from 6 games, while Genoa are 17th in Serie A with 4 points from 6 games; AS Roma sit above Genoa.
What the model expects
The estimates put an AS Roma win (67.2%), then a draw (19.8%), then a Genoa win (13.1%). The model’s likeliest result is an AS Roma win, and its lean is AS Roma to win. That forecast gives AS Roma the clearer route to the points, though the draw remains a meaningful possibility in the model’s view.
Expected goals are 2.2 for AS Roma and 0.8 for Genoa. The model’s goal outlook is over 2.5 goals at 54.8% and under 2.5 goals at 45.2%; it gives both teams scoring 46.8%, with at least one side failing to score at 53.2%. The likeliest scorelines are 1-0 (14.2%), 2-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (9.1%).
The figures point to a game in which AS Roma are expected to create the stronger scoring threat. The most likely exact score is a narrow one, while the next two listed possibilities also have AS Roma ahead. That combination makes the model’s central expectation a home win without ruling out a more open contest or a draw.
Form and standings
AS Roma’s recent sequence is DDWWW, with 3 wins and 2 draws and 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their latest result was a 0-0 away draw with Como on October 11, extending a run in which they have been unbeaten in their last 5. The results and scoring record give the hosts a steady platform going into this fixture, even though their latest outing ended without a goal.