Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bologna host Inter in Serie A on Saturday, October 17, with kick-off at 12:00 p.m. ET at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna. The sides arrive in different positions in the table: Inter sit above Bologna. Inter are unbeaten in their last 5, while Bologna are unbeaten in their last 2; the model’s central call is an Inter win.
Bologna’s latest result was a 2-1 away win against Lecce on October 11. Inter come into the match after a 3-0 home win against Parma on October 10. The teams’ recent results provide a clear frame for the meeting, with Bologna’s latest win offering a positive result before a test against the side above them in the standings.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome probabilities are estimates. Its order is an Inter win (59.4%), then a draw (23.2%), then a Bologna win (17.4%), making an Inter win the likeliest result. Its lean is Inter to win, and its expected-goals figures are Bologna 1.1 and Inter 1.5. The projection gives Inter the stronger expected-goals figure, while Bologna also have a scoring expectation.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 45.7% and under 2.5 goals at 54.3%. It gives 49.5% to both teams scoring, while 50.6% is the probability that at least one side fails to score. The likeliest exact scores are 0-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.4%) and 1-1 (9.3%). Those projected scorelines are close, even as the overall outcome order favours Inter.