Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Jordan 1–1 Syria. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Jordan host Syria in a friendly on Sunday, September 27, with the model backing the hosts while projecting goals at both ends. The contrast is clear in the recent records: Jordan have drawn repeatedly without a win, while Syria have also struggled to turn results around and arrive after a heavy defeat.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model makes Jordan favourites at 59.4%, with the draw at 23.8% and a Syria win at 16.7%. Its lean is Jordan to win, and its expected-goals figures put Jordan at 2.7 against Syria at 1.4. That gap points to a home side expected to create the stronger scoring return, though the visitors are not projected to be shut out.
The goals forecast is tilted towards over 2.5 goals at 77.3%, while under 2.5 goals at 22.7% is the alternative. The model gives both teams a goal at 69.4%, against 30.6% for not both scoring. Those figures frame a match in which a Jordan advantage can coexist with a meaningful prospect of Syria finding the net.
The leading exact-score calls are 2-1 at 7.5%, 1-1 at 7% and 2-0 at 6.7%. No single score dominates the forecast: the top call has a modest probability, with the other listed outcomes also carrying close to it. Bookmaker prices, with the margin removed, imply Jordan 61.1%, the draw 23.9% and Syria 15%. That broadly aligns with the model's ordering, while its home-win estimate is slightly below the market's implied figure.