Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Jamaica 0–1 Honduras. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Jamaica host Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 8:00 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome order is a Jamaica win (45%), then a Honduras win (28.8%), then a draw (26.2%), giving the fixture a clear forecast shape while leaving all three outcomes in the picture.
The expected-goals projection is 1.5 for Jamaica and 1.1 for Honduras. These are estimates, and the model’s numbers point to a match with several plausible ways to finish rather than a single definitive scoreline. The most recent meeting between the sides ended Jamaica 0-0 Honduras (October 2024), a goalless result that offers a recent point of reference without determining what happens here.
What the model expects
The model gives Jamaica 45%, the draw 26.2% and Honduras 28.8%. Its likeliest result is a Jamaica win. Those figures are the model’s estimates for the possible match outcomes, not certainties about the final result.
For the total-goals line, the model has over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. Its estimate for both teams to score is 51.7%; the figure for at least one side failing to score is 48.3%. The latter covers matches in which one side scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw.
The model’s leading exact-score projections are 1-0 at 11.8%, 1-1 at 10.5% and 0-0 at 9.5%. Together, those scorelines span a narrow home win, a level match and a goalless draw. They are specific possibilities within the wider forecast, rather than a complete list of potential results.