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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

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Jamaica 0-1 Honduras: Match Analysis & Model Review

Jamaica 0-1 Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League, Monday, September 28: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Honduras beat Jamaica 0-1 in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28, with keyrol figuora scoring the only goal. The goal arrived in the 14th minute, and Honduras carried its advantage through half-time, when the score was 0-1. The match finished with a 1-0 win for Honduras over Jamaica.

The decisive moment came early enough to shape the rest of the contest: only Honduras ever led. Jamaica finished without a goal, and Honduras's strike remained the difference. The scoreline was settled by one finish, despite both teams putting attempts on target.

How it unfolded

Keyrol figuora scored for Honduras in the 14th minute, making it 0-1. That was the only goal, and the half-time score was 0-1. No later goal changed the lead; the final score was 0-1.

The match therefore turned on the first goal rather than a sequence of scoring changes. Honduras held the advantage from the 14th minute until the final whistle, as only Honduras ever led. Jamaica's tally was no goals; Honduras finished with one goal, for one goal overall.

The numbers

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Jamaica recorded 3 shots, with 2 on target. Honduras recorded 5 shots, with 2 on target. Those figures show that both sides tested the target, but only Honduras converted an attempt into the goal that decided the match. Jamaica's two efforts on target produced no score, while Honduras's two on target were accompanied by its single goal.

Possession was 35% for Jamaica and 65% for Honduras. The corner count was 0 for Jamaica and 2 for Honduras, and the saves count was 1 for Jamaica and 2 for Honduras. The match statistics sit alongside a clear outcome: Honduras scored, Jamaica did not, and the sole goal stood as the difference at full-time. The shots and possession figures describe the contest, but the result was decided by the goal in the 14th minute.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Jamaica a win probability of 44.7%, a draw probability of 26.1% and a Honduras win probability of 29.2%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Jamaica to win, but it gave the result that actually occurred a probability of 29.2%.

That makes the final score a departure from the model's pre-match call: the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The prediction favoured a Jamaica win, yet Honduras supplied the only goal and left with the win. The model's assessment and the match outcome diverged; the scoring record explains the result, with keyrol figuora's finish the defining event.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Jamaica vs Honduras

Mon, Sep 28 · 8:00 PM ET · Independence Park

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 14'keyrol figuora0–1

The model before the game

Jamaica
44.7%
Draw
26.1%
Honduras
29.2%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

JamaicaStatisticHonduras
1saves2
3shots5
0corners2
35%possession65%
2shots on target2
Open the Match Center

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