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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Jagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia: Match Analysis & Model Review

Jagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Jagiellonia recovered from an early setback to beat Ararat-Armenia 3-1 in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15. Zidane Banjaqui put Ararat-Armenia ahead, but Kamil Jóźwiak equalised before Rodrigo Conceição turned the score around before the break. Ousmane Sow added a further goal after half-time to complete a 3-1 win for Jagiellonia over Ararat-Armenia.

The interval score was 2-1. Jagiellonia scored three goals, Ararat-Armenia scored one goal, and there were four goals overall. Both sides led at some point, the lead changed hands once and the score was levelled once. Jagiellonia responded quickly to going behind, then built its advantage before the interval.

How it unfolded

Zidane Banjaqui gave Ararat-Armenia the lead in the 11th minute, making it 0-1. Kamil Jóźwiak levelled for Jagiellonia in the 13th minute, with the score 1-1. Rodrigo Conceição then put Jagiellonia ahead in the 38th minute, making it 2-1; the interval score was 2-1.

Ousmane Sow added to Jagiellonia’s lead in the 51st minute, making the score 3-1. Jagiellonia held a two-goal lead. The sequence of goals took the match from an early Ararat-Armenia advantage to a level score, then to a Jagiellonia lead before the interval and a further goal after the break.

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The numbers

Ararat-Armenia had 58% possession and Jagiellonia had 42%. The shot totals were 15 for Ararat-Armenia and 13 for Jagiellonia; shots on target were 4 and 5 respectively. Ararat-Armenia had more of the ball and more attempts, while Jagiellonia finished with the win.

Expected goals were 1.59 for Jagiellonia and 0.99 for Ararat-Armenia. The corner counts were 2 and 3, and the saves figures were 3 and 2, respectively. Those measures add detail to a match in which the scores changed quickly in the opening stages, before Jagiellonia added another goal after the interval.

Standout performers

Rodrigo Conceição was Jagiellonia’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.8 and 1 goal. His goal put Jagiellonia ahead in the first half, and that advantage lasted through the interval.

M. Carlier was Ararat-Armenia’s best-rated player, rated 7.7 with 1 assist. The assist came in a match where Ararat-Armenia had substantial possession, but Jagiellonia’s goals proved decisive.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Jagiellonia a 62.8% chance of winning, a draw 20.2%, and an Ararat-Armenia win 17%. These are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Jagiellonia to win, and the model's most likely outcome happened.

The model assigned the actual outcome 62.8%. Jagiellonia’s win matched its pre-match call, with the side turning an early deficit into a lead before adding the final goal after the break.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

Thu, Oct 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku

Full time

3–1

Half-time 2–1

  • 11'Zidane Banjaqui0–1
  • 13'Kamil Jóźwiak1–1
  • 38'Rodrigo Conceição2–1
  • 51'Ousmane Sow3–1

The model before the game

Jagiellonia
62.8%
Draw
20.2%
Ararat-Armenia
17%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

JagielloniaStatisticArarat-Armenia
3saves2
13shots15
2corners3
42%possession58%
1.59expected goals0.99
5shots on target4
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