Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Israel 0–3 Rep. Of Ireland. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Israel host Rep. Of Ireland in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model sees little to separate them: Rep. Of Ireland have a narrow edge in its win probabilities, while its expected-goals estimate is level.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates, and the model makes Rep. Of Ireland slight favourites at 35.8%; it gives Israel 34.8% and the draw 29.4%. The narrow gap points to a closely balanced fixture rather than a clear favourite.
The expected-goals figures are identical at 1.2 for Israel and 1.2 for Rep. Of Ireland. The model leans towards under 2.5 goals: it puts under 2.5 goals at 57.7% against over 2.5 goals at 42.3%, and is marginally more likely to have at least one team kept off the scoresheet, with both teams scoring at 48.2% and not both scoring at 51.8%.
The most likely exact score is 0-0 at 13.6%, followed by 1-1 at 12.3% and 0-1 at 10%. Even the leading scoreline has a modest probability, underscoring how the model spreads its expectation across several outcomes.
Bookmaker probabilities, with the margin removed, are 34.2% for an Israel win, 29.7% for a draw and 36.1% for a Rep. Of Ireland win. Those figures also give Rep. Of Ireland a small edge and place the draw close to the model's estimate.