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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Israel 0-3 Rep. Of Ireland: Match Analysis & Model Review

Israel 0-3 Rep. Of Ireland in the UEFA Nations League, Sunday, September 27: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 3-0 win for Rep. Of Ireland over Israel in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27, with the decisive scoring completed before half-time. Israel could not find a goal, and the score at the interval was 0-3; it stayed 0-3 through the second half.

The match was played at Nagyerdei Stadion. The possession split was 37% for Israel and 63% for Rep. Of Ireland, but the final score tells the more important part of the story: Rep. Of Ireland left with the win, while Israel finished scoreless. The gap between control of the ball and the outcome is striking, though possession alone does not explain how the goals arrived.

How it unfolded

By the interval, Rep. Of Ireland had scored three goals and Israel had no goals. The second half brought no change to the scoreline, so the match was already settled by the time the teams returned from the break.

The available details do not give individual goal timings or identify the order of the goals. What is clear is that the full scoring contribution from Rep. Of Ireland came before the interval, leaving Israel with no reply across the match.

The numbers

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The shot count was 0 for Israel and 2 for Rep. Of Ireland. Neither side recorded a shot on target: 0 for Israel and 0 for Rep. Of Ireland. The result alongside those figures makes this an unusual statistical profile: Rep. Of Ireland scored without a recorded effort on target, while Israel had possession but no recorded shot.

That contrast cautions against reading possession as a measure of threat in this match. Israel had the smaller share of the ball and did not turn its share into an attempt; Rep. Of Ireland had more of it, yet the recorded shot totals still do not show the source of its scoring. The clearest evidence is the score itself and the fact that all of Rep. Of Ireland’s goals were on the board by half-time.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Israel a win probability of 35.7%, a draw probability of 28.8% and a Rep. Of Ireland win probability of 35.5%. These are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Israel to win, but it gave the actual result a probability of 35.5%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The final outcome therefore differed from the model’s stated most likely call. Its pre-match view still assigned Rep. Of Ireland a substantial chance of winning, and the match finished with that outcome rather than the model’s preferred one.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Israel vs Rep. Of Ireland

Sun, Sep 27 · 2:45 PM ET · Nagyerdei Stadion

Full time

0–3

Half-time 0–3

The model before the game

Israel
35.7%
Draw
28.8%
Rep. Of Ireland
35.5%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

IsraelStatisticRep. Of Ireland
0shots2
37%possession63%
0shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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