Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Hungary 1–0 Georgia. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Hungary host Georgia in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with both teams on the same points total and separated in the group table. The model’s likeliest result is a Hungary win; the meeting is at Puskás Aréna, Budapest.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Hungary win (44.5%), then a draw (28.2%), then a Georgia win (27.2%). These probabilities are estimates, and they put a Hungary win first without making it an overwhelming call. The draw and a Georgia win remain substantial possibilities in the model’s assessment, so the forecast leaves room for either side to take something from the match. The model’s view against the bookmakers is the model gives a Hungary win 44.5%, below the bookmakers' 46.5%.
For goals, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 54.9% and over 2.5 goals at 45.1%. Its expected-goals figures are Hungary 1.4 and Georgia 1.1, a projection that gives Hungary the larger expected contribution while keeping the gap modest. Those estimates point towards a contest where a single goal could matter, rather than a forecast of a clear attacking advantage.
The model puts both teams to score at 49.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 50.8%; that second figure does not mean the match is expected to finish goalless. Its leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%) and 0-0 (10.2%). The range of those outcomes underlines the uncertainty around the final score, even with a home win at the top of the result forecast.