Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Haiti 2–0 Costa Rica. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Haiti host Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League on Sunday, September 27 at 7:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives Haiti a win 36.9%, a draw 27.1% and Costa Rica a win 36%. A Haiti win is the model’s likeliest result, with the outcome probabilities close together.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model assigns Haiti and Costa Rica expected goals of 1.2 apiece. Its goals projection is under 2.5 goals at 55.5% and over 2.5 goals at 44.5%, with a stated lean toward under 2.5 goals.
The model gives both teams scoring 50%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 50%. Those are separate possibilities in the model’s outlook, and the figures do not select one as the clear expectation. The projected goals totals are level, while the model’s lean points toward the total-goals line.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-0 at 11.6%, 0-0 at 11.4% and 1-1 at 11%. None accounts for a large share of the model’s forecast on its own. The scorelines offer distinct ways the match could develop: a home win without conceding, a goalless draw, or a draw with both teams scoring. The wider goals projection leans under the line, rather than pointing to one exact score as the outcome to expect.