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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Haiti 2-0 Costa Rica: Match Analysis & Model Review

Haiti 2-0 Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Nations League, Sunday, September 27: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 2-0 win for Haiti over Costa Rica on Sunday, September 27 gave Haiti a decisive result in the CONCACAF Nations League, with both goals arriving before the interval. Haiti went in at 2-0 and protected that advantage after the break, despite Costa Rica having more of the ball and attempting more shots.

The scoreline reflected Haiti's efficiency in front of goal, while Costa Rica could not turn its greater share of possession into a goal. The recorded figures show a match where the teams shared the corners, but the key moments belonged to Haiti.

How it unfolded

J. Bellegarde opened the scoring in the 9th minute for Haiti, putting the match at 1-0. Haiti then extended the lead in the 39th minute: Francisco Calvo scored an own goal for Haiti, making it 2-0.

Only Haiti ever led. Haiti held a two-goal lead at 2-0, and the interval score remained the final score, 2-0.

The numbers

Haiti recorded 4 shots to Costa Rica's 13, with 1 and 3 on target respectively. That gap in attempts did not translate into a goal for Costa Rica; Haiti finished with two goals, while Costa Rica had no goals, leaving two goals overall.

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Possession was 45% for Haiti and 55% for Costa Rica. The corner count was level at 2 apiece, and the saves figures were 3 for Haiti and 0 for Costa Rica. Together, the numbers underline the contrast between Costa Rica's higher volume of possession and shots and Haiti's ability to make its chances count.

Standout performers

J. Bellegarde was Haiti's best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2 and 1 goal. His contribution included the opening goal, a moment that put Haiti in front early and set the scoreline on its way.

For Costa Rica, J. Mitchell was the highest-rated player, earning 6.8. The rating stands out in a match where Costa Rica had more possession and attempts, but could not find a way onto the scoresheet.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model gave Haiti a 65.9% chance of winning, with the draw at 16.2% and a Costa Rica win at 17.8%. These are estimates. Haiti to win was the model's most likely outcome, and it assigned the actual result 65.9%.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The result aligned with the model's pre-match view, while the match figures show that Haiti converted its early scoring opportunities into a lead that held through the final whistle.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Haiti vs Costa Rica

Sun, Sep 27 · 7:00 PM ET · Sabina Park

Full time

2–0

Half-time 2–0

  • 9'Jean-Ricner Bellegarde1–0
  • 39'Francisco Calvo (own goal)2–0

The model before the game

Haiti
65.9%
Draw
16.2%
Costa Rica
17.9%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

HaitiStatisticCosta Rica
3saves0
4shots13
2corners2
45%possession55%
1shots on target3
Open the Match Center

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