Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Guinea 1–0 Kenya. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Guinea host Kenya in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Thursday, October 1, with kick-off at 12:00 p.m. ET at Stade 28 Septembre, Conakry. Goalorithm’s model makes a Guinea win its likeliest result, and its scoring projections point towards a match in which goals may be scarce.
What the model expects
The outcome probabilities are estimates. The model's order is a Guinea win (55.4%), then a draw (27.6%), then a Kenya win (17.1%), with a Guinea win the likeliest result. Its separate summary of the call is that the model gives a Guinea win 55.4%, in line with the bookmakers' 56.2%. The model's lean is Guinea to win.
The goal projections favour under 2.5 goals at 69.3% over 2.5 goals at 30.7%. For both-teams-to-score, the model gives 29%, while 71% is its figure for at least one side failing to score. That latter outcome covers any match where one team does not find the net; it does not mean the model is specifically forecasting a goalless draw.
Expected goals are Guinea 1.5 and Kenya 0.5. The model's leading exact-score projections are 1-0 (20.9%), 0-0 (17.3%) and 2-0 (14.4%). Each of those scorelines has Kenya failing to score, which fits the model's wider expectation of a restrained total. The clean-sheet possibility is present across the listed score projections, while the model's separate both-teams-to-score figure leaves room for a goal from either side. These are distinct views of the same match: one sets out the likely result, another estimates total goals, and the exact-score projections describe possible final scores.