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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Guinea 1-0 Kenya: Match Analysis & Model Review

Guinea 1-0 Kenya in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Thursday, October 1: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Guinea secured a 1-0 win for Guinea over Kenya in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Thursday, October 1, with 1-0 the half-time score and the final score unchanged. The match produced one goal in all: Guinea found the net, while Kenya finished without a goal.

At Stade 28 Septembre, the outcome was settled by the goal reflected in the scoreline. Guinea held the lead at the interval and retained it through full-time, completing a win in a match that finished with the same score recorded at half-time.

How it unfolded

Guinea led 1-0 at the break. The final score was 1-0, with Guinea accounting for one goal and Kenya for no goals; there were no further goals after half-time.

That left the first-half score as the match-winning margin. The result was decided by the goal that put Guinea ahead, and Kenya could not add a goal to change the outcome.

The numbers

Guinea had 71% possession, compared with 29% for Kenya, and recorded 4 shots to 1. The possession share was heavily in Guinea's favour, but neither side registered a shot on target: the figures were 0 for Guinea and 0 for Kenya.

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The corner count was 0 for Guinea and 1 for Kenya. Taken together, the recorded numbers show Guinea with most of the ball and more attempts, but no shot on target for either team. The scoreline, rather than a high volume of efforts testing the goalkeepers, tells the story of the decisive difference between the sides.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Guinea a 58.1% chance of winning, put the draw at 26.2%, and gave Kenya a 15.7% chance. Its most likely outcome was Guinea to win; it gave the actual result 58.1%, and the model's most likely outcome happened.

The final score 1-0 was also the model's 1st-likeliest score. The model’s outlook therefore aligned with the match result, and the exact scoreline was among its likeliest score predictions. Guinea converted that pre-match expectation into a win, while Kenya left without a goal.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Guinea vs Kenya

Thu, Oct 1 · 12:00 PM ET · Stade 28 Septembre

Full time

1–0

Half-time 1–0

The model before the game

Guinea
58.1%
Draw
26.2%
Kenya
15.7%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

GuineaStatisticKenya
4shots1
0corners1
71%possession29%
0shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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