Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Guatemala 6–0 El Salvador. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Guatemala host El Salvador in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 10:00 p.m. ET, with Goalorithm’s model making a home win its likeliest outcome. The model’s lean is under 2.5 goals, while its projections leave a draw and an away win in the picture.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Guatemala 44.9%, a draw 27% and El Salvador 28.1%; its outcome order is a Guatemala win (44.9%), then an El Salvador win (28.1%), then a draw (27%). Its likeliest result is a Guatemala win, at 44.9%, though that remains a forecast rather than a settled outcome. The bookmakers’ outcome order is a Guatemala win (48%), then a draw (26.5%), then an El Salvador win (25.5%), and the model gives a Guatemala win 44.9%, below the bookmakers' 48%.
The expected-goals figures are 1.4 for Guatemala and 1 for El Salvador. The likeliest exact scores are 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.1%) and 1-1 (10.7%). These projections offer several possible scorelines rather than a single fixed script: the listed outcomes include a home win, a goalless draw and a level score with goals for both teams.
For the total, the model puts over 2.5 goals at 44.1% and under 2.5 goals at 55.9%, with a lean towards under 2.5 goals. It gives both teams scoring 48.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 51.8%. That latter figure is not limited to a goalless draw; it also covers scores in which one team scores and the other does not. The total-goals and both-teams-to-score figures describe separate questions: how many goals are scored overall, and whether each team gets on the scoresheet. Read together, they frame the model’s view of the likely scoring pattern without specifying exactly how the match will unfold.