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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Guatemala 6-0 El Salvador: Match Analysis & Model Review

Guatemala 6-0 El Salvador in the CONCACAF Nations League, Monday, September 28: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Guatemala beat El Salvador in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28, with a 6-0 win for Guatemala over El Salvador. The final score was 6-0, after Guatemala had gone in at half-time leading 3-0. The goals came at 8th minute, 28th minute, 32nd minute, 56th minute, 89th minute and 90th minute (+2), with Guatemala scoring before and after the break and El Salvador failing to score.

The shot count was close: El Salvador recorded 13 attempts to Guatemala’s 15. The shots-on-target figures were 5 for Guatemala and 1 for El Salvador. Possession also leaned towards El Salvador, at 52% against Guatemala’s 48%, but the scoreline was decisively in Guatemala’s favour.

How it unfolded

Darwin Lom opened the scoring for Guatemala in the 8th minute, making it 1-0. Rubio Rubin extended the lead for Guatemala in the 28th minute, and William Fajardo made it 3-0 in the 32nd minute. That left Guatemala ahead 3-0 at the interval.

After the break, Jorge Aparicio scored for Guatemala in the 56th minute, making it 4-0. William Fajardo added another for Guatemala in the 89th minute. William Fajardo completed the scoring for Guatemala in the 90th minute (+2), setting the final score at 6-0. Only Guatemala ever led; Guatemala held a six-goal lead at 6-0.

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Matches
Predictions
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The numbers

Guatemala had 4 corners and El Salvador had 3. Both sides made 1 save. The match produced six goals, with Guatemala scoring six goals and El Salvador scoring no goals.

William Fajardo scored three goals, recording a hat-trick. The shot figures underline the contrast between the sides’ returns: Guatemala put 5 attempts on target, while El Salvador managed 1.

Standout performers

W. Fajardo was Guatemala’s best-rated player, with a rating of 9.3 and 3 goals and 1 assist. The goals came at different stages of the match, including the late strikes that completed the scoring.

El Salvador’s best-rated player was R. Tejada, rated 7.4. The rating stood out against a team performance that ended without a goal, despite El Salvador recording 13 attempts.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm’s model gave Guatemala a 41.5% chance of winning, a draw 30.9%, and an El Salvador win 27.6%. Its most likely outcome was Guatemala to win; it assigned the actual result a probability of 41.5%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

The model’s call matched the result: Guatemala scored in both halves and finished with 6-0. El Salvador had more of the ball, but Guatemala’s goals and shots on target tell the sharper story of how the match was decided.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Guatemala vs El Salvador

Mon, Sep 28 · 10:00 PM ET · Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera

Full time

6–0

Half-time 3–0

  • 8'Darwin Lom1–0
  • 28'Rubio Rubin2–0
  • 32'William Fajardo3–0
  • 56'Jorge Aparicio4–0
  • 89'William Fajardo5–0
  • 90'+2William Fajardo6–0

The model before the game

Guatemala
41.5%
Draw
30.9%
El Salvador
27.6%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

GuatemalaStatisticEl Salvador
1saves1
15shots13
4corners3
48%possession52%
5shots on target1
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