Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Guadeloupe 2–2 Barbados. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Guadeloupe host Barbados in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 3:00 p.m. ET, with the model’s likeliest result a Guadeloupe win. Its forecast gives the contest a tilt towards Guadeloupe, while keeping a draw and a Barbados win in the range of possible outcomes. The match is at Darren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Guadeloupe win (57.3%), then a draw (24.9%), then a Barbados win (17.8%), and its lean is Guadeloupe to win. The ordering makes a Guadeloupe win the model’s leading outcome, but does not make it the only result in its forecast: a draw and a Barbados win are also represented. The model’s view is a probability-based expectation, not a prediction that one result is certain.
The expected-goals figures are Guadeloupe 1.8 and Barbados 0.7. They indicate the model’s projected scoring contribution for each side, with Guadeloupe assigned the larger figure. The model’s goals estimates are over 2.5 goals at 45.2% and under 2.5 goals at 54.8%. These are the model’s assessments of the total-goals possibilities, separate from its expected-goals figures for each team.
For both teams to score, the model gives 42.8%; for at least one side to fail to score, it gives 57.2%. The latter is not a forecast of a goalless draw: it includes any result in which one team does not score. The leading correct-score forecasts are 1-0 (15.2%), 2-0 (12.3%) and 0-0 (10.6%). They set out a narrow home win, a home win with another goal, and a goalless draw among the model’s listed scorelines. Correct-score estimates describe individual outcomes within the broader forecast, rather than replacing its overall result probabilities.