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GOALORITHM / FTB

Preview · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Greece vs Netherlands Prediction & Preview (October 1)

Greece vs Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League, Thursday, October 1. Goalorithm's model makes Netherlands win the most likely result at 44.1%. The table and the likeliest scores.

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Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Full time: Greece 2–2 Netherlands. Read the match analysis →

Preview

Greece host Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET. The group table places Greece above Netherlands, while the model’s ordering of outcomes puts an away win first. The fixture is at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki.

What the model expects

The probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a Netherlands win. Its full ordering is a Netherlands win (44.1%), then a Greece win (29.5%), then a draw (26.4%), leaving both a home win and a draw as substantial alternatives to the leading outcome.

The goals forecast leans towards over 2.5 goals at 53.8%, with under 2.5 goals at 46.2% also in the picture. The model gives both teams scoring 56.5%; its probability that at least one side fails to score is 43.5%. These are related but distinct readings of the match: a side can fail to score without the game ending goalless.

Expected goals are 1.2 for Greece and 1.6 for Netherlands. The leading scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%, followed among the listed outcomes by 0-0 at 9.7% and 0-1 at 9%. That spread leaves the model with a clear outcome preference but no single scoreline accounting for a large share of its forecast.

Against the bookmakers' implied probabilities, the model gives a Netherlands win 44.1%, below the bookmakers' 46.4%.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Form and standings

Greece sit 1st in Group 2 with 6 points from 2 games, while Netherlands are 2nd in Group 2 on 4 points from 2 games. Greece sit above Netherlands. That gives the fixture a clear group-table context: the side currently below its opponent has the model's leading win outcome, while the side above it retains a meaningful chance of taking the match.

The points totals set out each team's position after the opening group matches, but do not tell the full story of how either side has reached this fixture. Here, the standings and the forecast offer different angles on the same contest: the table separates the teams, and the model makes an away win its leading result without removing the other outcomes from consideration.

Team news

No team news is on file yet, and line-ups have not been announced.

What to watch

The contrast between the group table and the model gives the game its central point of interest. Greece begin above Netherlands, but the model's preferred outcome is an away win. The expected-goals projection also assigns Netherlands the higher attacking figure, while giving Greece a route to a goal of their own.

That makes the forecast for both teams to score relevant alongside the outcome probabilities. The model allows for goals at both ends, but its leading scoreline is level and a goalless draw also appears among its likeliest scores. Its view is therefore not simply that Netherlands will win: the draw and a Greece victory remain live possibilities within the forecast.

For Greece, the table position and the model's home-win outcome offer different reasons to see the match as open. For Netherlands, the leading model result comes with a projected scoring edge, rather than certainty of a straightforward win. The key analytical tension is whether the model's away-win lean can overcome the table's current ordering, or whether the home side can make its position count.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Greece vs Netherlands

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:45 PM ET · Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki

Goalorithm's model

Greece
29.5%
Draw
26.4%
Netherlands
44.1%
Over 2.5 goals
53.8%
Both teams score
56.5%

Likeliest scores

  • 1–1 11.4%
  • 0–0 9.7%
  • 0–1 9%

Bookmakers, margin removed

Greece 27.7% · Draw 25.9% · Netherlands 46.4%

Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

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