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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Match Analysis & Model Review

Greece 2-2 Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League, Thursday, October 1: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Greece and Netherlands finished level at 2-2 in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with Greece holding a 2-0 half-time lead before the match ended as a 2-2 draw. The scoreline included four goals, split evenly between the sides.

The interval score put Greece in front, but the final score left neither side with the win. Netherlands scored two goals to draw level, while Greece finished with two goals.

How it unfolded

Greece led 2-0 at half-time. The final score was 2-2, with Greece scoring two goals and Netherlands scoring two goals. The match ended as a 2-2 draw.

The numbers

Netherlands had 66% possession and Greece had 34%. The shot count was 6 for Greece and 4 for Netherlands; shots on target were 3 and 1 respectively. Greece recorded 4 corners, compared with 2 for Netherlands.

The save figures were 1 for Greece and 2 for Netherlands. Despite having less of the ball, Greece matched Netherlands on the scoreline. The teams’ shots on target and corner counts provide further context for a match that finished level.

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Standout performers

F. Ioannidis was Greece’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.7 and 1 goal. His contribution came in a match where Greece scored two goals and went on to draw with Netherlands.

J. Timber was Netherlands’ best-rated player, rated 6.8. The two players were their respective sides’ top-rated performers in a match that ended 2-2.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave Greece a win probability of 29.6%, a draw probability of 26.6% and Netherlands a win probability of 43.8%. These probabilities are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Netherlands to win, while the model gave the actual result 26.6%.

The match finished a 2-2 draw, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. Greece had led at half-time, but the final score was level.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Greece vs Netherlands

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:45 PM ET · Toumba Stadium

Full time

2–2

Half-time 2–0

The model before the game

Greece
29.6%
Draw
26.6%
Netherlands
43.8%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

GreeceStatisticNetherlands
1saves2
6shots4
4corners2
34%possession66%
3shots on target1
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