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Preview · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Germany vs Serbia Prediction & Preview (October 1)

Germany vs Serbia in the UEFA Nations League, Thursday, October 1. Goalorithm's model makes Germany win the most likely result at 73.3%. Form, the table and the likeliest scores.

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Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Full time: Germany 2–0 Serbia. Read the match analysis →

Preview

Germany host Serbia in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with both sides looking to improve their position in Group 2. Germany come into the fixture after a 1-0 home defeat to Greece on September 27; Serbia have yet to take a point in the group. The match is at Allianz Arena, Munich.

What the model expects

The model's estimates put a Germany win first, with the outcomes ordered as a Germany win (73.3%), then a draw (16.6%), then a Serbia win (10.2%). Its stated lean is Germany to win. The expected-goals figures are 2.5 for Germany and 0.9 for Serbia, giving a numerical picture of the goals the model expects from each side.

The model gives over 2.5 goals at 65.9% and under 2.5 goals at 34.1% for the total. It puts both teams to score at 53.7%, while 46.3% covers the chance that at least one side fails to score. Its leading exact-score calls are 2-0 at 10.8%, 3-0 at 8.7% and 1-0 at 8.6%. Each of those scorelines has Germany winning to nil, though the broader scoring estimates also allow for both teams to score.

Form and standings

More soccer news

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SoccerPreview· Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes GIL Vicente win the most likely result at 37.5%. Form, the table, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 1:45 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 72.7%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:00 PM ET

Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Germany sit 3rd in Group 2 with 1 point from 2 games, while Serbia are 4th in Group 2 with 0 points from 2 games; Germany sit above Serbia. The standings show both teams' current points totals after their opening group games: Germany have a point on the board, and Serbia have yet to collect one. The match gives each side an opportunity to add to that total.

Germany's latest result was a 1-0 home defeat to Greece on September 27. Across their recent sequence of 4 games, the record is 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 2 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their sequence reads LDLL, and they are without a win in their last 4. That is the recent form entering this fixture; the model's expectation is set out separately above.

Team news

No team news is on file yet, and the line-ups are not announced. There is no confirmed selection information to add to the preview.

What to watch

The model's exact-score calls point to a possible home win without a goal for Serbia, while its wider scoring estimates do not make that the only scenario. The expected-goals figures put Germany at 2.5 and Serbia at 0.9; they are estimates of each side's expected goals, not a prediction of the final score. The model's score calls offer several possible margins rather than a single precise forecast.

The model gives both teams to score a probability of 53.7%, alongside 46.3% for at least one side to fail to score. Those figures frame a question for the match: whether Serbia get on the scoresheet, and whether Germany convert their expected goals into a win. The model's overall outcome view remains a Germany win.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Germany vs Serbia

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:45 PM ET · Allianz Arena, Munich

Goalorithm's model

Germany
73.3%
Draw
16.6%
Serbia
10.2%
Over 2.5 goals
65.9%
Both teams score
53.7%

Likeliest scores

  • 2–0 10.8%
  • 3–0 8.7%
  • 1–0 8.7%

Bookmakers, margin removed

Germany 76.7% · Draw 15.3% · Serbia 7.9%

Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 68.8%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:30 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Lens vs Lyon in Ligue 1, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Lens win the most likely result at 37.4%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:45 PM ET