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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Germany 2-0 Serbia: Match Analysis & Model Review

Germany 2-0 Serbia in the UEFA Nations League, Thursday, October 1: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 2-0 win for Germany over Serbia in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with Germany ahead 1-0 at half-time. The final score was 2-0; Germany scored two goals, while Serbia finished with no goals, making two goals in all. The match record shows Germany with attempts on target and Serbia without one, alongside a possession split of 75% to 25%.

The numbers

Germany recorded 12 shots, with 3 on target. Serbia had 0 shots and 0 on target. The possession figures were 75% for Germany and 25% for Serbia. Germany won 5 corners, compared with 0 for Serbia. In the saves column, Germany made 0 and Serbia made 3. The figures give a clear account of the match’s statistical shape: Germany had the ball for the stated share of play and recorded the attempts, while the Serbia total was blank in both the shots and shots-on-target columns. The corner count also registered for Germany, with none recorded for Serbia. The save figures show work for Serbia's goalkeeper and none for Germany's. Together, those measures put the final score in context without requiring assumptions about how either side approached the game. The numbers describe possession, attempts, corners and saves; they do not by themselves explain the details of the goals or the sequence of chances.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Germany's best-rated player was A. Pavlović, with a rating of 7.2. Serbia's best-rated player was Đ. Petrović, rated 6.9. The ratings provide an individual measure for each side in a match whose team statistics were strongly defined by Germany's possession and shot totals. A. Pavlović led the ratings for Germany, while Đ. Petrović was the top-rated player for Serbia. Those assessments sit alongside the match figures rather than replacing them: the team totals show how the game was recorded collectively, and the player ratings identify the highest-rated performer on each side.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm's model gave Germany a 74.8% chance of winning, put the draw at 15.1%, and gave Serbia a 10.1% chance. Its pre-match selection was Germany to win; after the match, the model gave the actual outcome 74.8%, and the model's most likely outcome happened. The final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score. That makes the result consistent with the model's stated most likely outcome, while the score ranking records how the exact scoreline figured in its forecast. The probabilities capture the model's view before kickoff; the verdict records whether its most likely outcome came to pass. Here, both the result and the scoreline have a place in the model's assessment, with the latter noted separately from its call on the match outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Germany vs Serbia

Thu, Oct 1 · 2:45 PM ET · Allianz Arena

Full time

2–0

Half-time 1–0

The model before the game

Germany
74.8%
Draw
15.1%
Serbia
10.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

GermanyStatisticSerbia
0saves3
12shots0
5corners0
75%possession25%
3shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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