Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Germany 0–1 Greece. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Germany host Greece in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The group table gives the fixture an immediate context: Greece sit above Germany. Germany arrive after a 1-1 away draw with Netherlands on September 24, while the model's likeliest result is a Germany win.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm's model gives the outcomes in this order: a Germany win (63%), then a draw (19.6%), then a Greece win (17.4%). Its lean is Germany to win, but the draw and a Greece win also feature in its assessment. The figures describe a clear preference for one outcome without removing the other possibilities from the model's picture of the match.
On goals, the model has over 2.5 goals at 61.3% and under 2.5 goals at 38.7%. It assigns 55.7% to both teams scoring and 44.3% to at least one side failing to score. The estimates allow for either a game in which both sides find the net or one in which at least one does not; they do not make either scenario certain.
Expected goals are 2.2 for Germany and 1 for Greece. The likeliest scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9.2%) and 1-0 (9%). They offer several possible routes to the result the model favours, including a draw, rather than settling on a single exact score.