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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

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Germany 0-1 Greece: Match Analysis & Model Review

Germany 0-1 Greece in the UEFA Nations League, Sunday, September 27: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Greece beat Germany 0-1 in the UEFA Nations League, after the sides went in level at 0-0. The match finished with one goal in all, and the goal for Greece proved decisive.

Germany had 89% possession, but did not score. Greece left with the win despite recording 0 shots and 0 shots on target, while Germany’s possession and attempts did not produce a goal.

How it unfolded

The teams were level at 0-0 at half-time. Greece scored the only goal of the match, leaving Germany with no goals and Greece with one goal.

That goal settled a match in which neither side recorded a shot on target. Germany finished without an equaliser, and Greece’s goal made the difference in the final score.

The numbers

Germany recorded 2 shots and 0 on target. Greece recorded 0 shots and 0 on target. The shot data show that Germany had attempts without testing the target, while Greece scored without a recorded shot.

Possession was 89% for Germany and 11% for Greece. Those figures describe a pronounced imbalance in possession, but they did not determine the score: Germany did not find a goal, and Greece did. The result is a reminder that possession and shots alone do not tell the whole story of a match; here, the decisive detail was the goal that separated the sides.

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The score stayed goalless through half-time, then Greece’s goal turned the match into a win. Germany’s possession did not bring an equaliser, and there were no further goals to change the outcome. With one goal in all, the final score was decided by a single finish rather than a series of scoring exchanges.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm’s model gave Germany a 68.5% chance of winning, a draw 18.6%, and Greece a win 12.9%. Its most likely outcome was Germany to win; it gave the actual result 12.9%.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. The model’s expectation was for Germany to win, but Greece took the points. Germany’s possession did not become a goal, while Greece’s scoring contribution was enough to settle the match.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Germany vs Greece

Sun, Sep 27 · 2:45 PM ET · WWK Arena

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

Germany
68.5%
Draw
18.6%
Greece
12.9%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

GermanyStatisticGreece
2shots0
89%possession11%
0shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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