Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Georgia 0–0 Ukraine. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Georgia host Ukraine in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Ukraine sit above Georgia in the group table, while the model’s likeliest outcome is a Ukraine win. Its goal forecast leans towards a lower-scoring contest, with a draw also prominent among the most likely exact scores.
The model’s probabilities are estimates. They leave room for Georgia to take the result or for the sides to share the points, rather than pointing to a settled outcome.
What the model expects
The model gives a Ukraine win (38%), then a Georgia win (32.6%), then a draw (29.3%). Ukraine lead its outcome ordering, but Georgia and a draw remain live possibilities in the forecast.
For goals, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 59.2% and over 2.5 goals at 40.8%, with its stated lean at under 2.5 goals. It assigns 46.8% to both teams scoring and 53.2% to at least one side failing to score. The expected-goals figures are Georgia 1.1 and Ukraine 1.2.
The model’s likeliest exact score is 0-0 (14.2%), followed by 1-1 (12.3%) and 0-1 (10.9%). A goalless draw tops the exact-score list, even though the overall outcome forecast favours a Ukraine win. These are distinct parts of the forecast: the outcome probabilities account for a range of scorelines, while the exact-score estimates identify the individual results the model rates most highly.