Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Genoa host Venezia in Serie A on Sunday, October 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET, with both sides positioned near the bottom of the table. Genoa sit 18th in Serie A with 4 points from 7 games, while Venezia sit 20th in Serie A with 3 points from 7 games; Genoa sit above Venezia.
The match is at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa. The model’s likeliest result is a Genoa win. In their most recent games, Genoa suffered a 2-0 away defeat to AS Roma on October 17, while Venezia claimed a 1-0 home win against Napoli on October 17.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Genoa win (45.8%), then a Venezia win (28.1%), then a draw (26.1%). Its expected goals are 1.8 for Genoa and 1.4 for Venezia, and its lean is over 2.5 goals.
The goal forecast points towards an open game: over 2.5 goals at 60.8%, compared with under 2.5 goals at 39.2%. The model gives both teams a chance of scoring at 62.2%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 37.8%.
The leading exact-score forecasts are 1-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%) and 2-1 (8.7%). Those scorelines offer different routes through the match: the set includes a narrow win for each side and a home win with both teams scoring. The broader forecast also leaves a draw among the possible outcomes.
Form and standings
Genoa’s recent sequence is LWLDL, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and 5 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-0 away defeat to AS Roma on October 17. That defeat followed a run containing a win and a draw as well, so the sequence has not been all one way.