Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Genoa host Juventus in Serie A on Wednesday, October 28, with kick-off at 3:45 p.m. ET. The model makes Juventus the likeliest winner, while Genoa arrive after a defeat and Juventus are without a win in their last 2.
The clubs come into the fixture from different positions in the table: Juventus sit above Genoa. Genoa have 4 points from 7 games; Juventus have 11 points from 6 games. The model’s figures are estimates, and its central call is a win for Juventus.
What the model expects
The model gives Juventus a win probability of 58.8%, against 21.7% for Genoa and 19.5% for a draw. Its likeliest result is a Juventus win. The expected-goals figures are Genoa 1 and Juventus 1.5, pointing to a modest scoring expectation for each side rather than a forecast of a high-scoring contest.
The model gives under 2.5 goals at 55.9% and over 2.5 goals at 44.1%. It puts both teams scoring at 48%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 52%. Its likeliest exact score is 0-1 at 16.4%; 1-0 at 12.5% and 0-2 at 8.6% complete the leading scorelines.
Form and standings
Genoa’s recent sequence is LWLDL. Across those matches, they have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-0 away defeat to AS Roma on October 17. They sit 18th in Serie A with 4 points from 7 games.
Juventus have a recent sequence of LDWLD, recording 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest outing was a 3-0 home defeat to Lazio on October 18. They sit 8th in Serie A with 11 points from 6 games, and are without a win in their last 2. The model’s preference for Juventus comes alongside that mixed recent record, not an unbroken run of wins.