Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: French Guyana 1–0 Sint Maarten. Read the match analysis →
Preview
French Guyana host Sint Maarten in the CONCACAF Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 5:00 p.m. ET, with the match scheduled for FFB Stadium, Belmopan. Goalorithm's model puts French Guyana first among the possible outcomes, but its expected-goals figures leave room for Sint Maarten to make the contest close.
The estimates point to a match where scoring on both sides is a plausible outcome, while the likeliest individual scoreline is a narrow home result. Those are different parts of the model's picture: the outcome probabilities cover the possible results, and the scoreline probabilities identify the exact scores it rates most likely.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes run a French Guyana win (48.6%), then a Sint Maarten win (26.4%), then a draw (25.1%). Its likeliest result is a French Guyana win; that is the model's leading outcome, not a certainty about how the game will finish.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 53.5% and under 2.5 goals at 46.5%. For both teams to score, it gives 55.1%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 44.9%. The scoring outlook therefore allows for goals at both ends as well as a game in which one team is kept off the scoresheet.
Expected goals are 1.7 for French Guyana and 1.1 for Sint Maarten. The model's most likely exact scores are 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8.6%). Each is a possible route through the match rather than a prediction that settles the result in advance. The leading scoreline has French Guyana ahead without conceding; the next has the teams level, while the other listed score also has a home win with no Sint Maarten goal.