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GOALORITHM / FTB

Preview · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Finland vs Belarus Prediction & Preview (September 29)

Finland vs Belarus in the UEFA Nations League, Tuesday, September 29. Goalorithm's model makes Finland win the most likely result at 57.5%. The table and the likeliest scores.

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Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Full time: Finland 0–0 Belarus. Read the match analysis →

Preview

Finland host Belarus in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model makes a Finland win the likeliest result, with a draw and an away win also in its forecast. Its expected-goals projection points to more attacking output from Finland, while its goal-total figures favour a match below the stated threshold.

The fixture brings together the side currently 1st in Group 1 and the side currently 3rd in Group 1. Finland have 3 points from 1 game, while Belarus have 0 points from 1 game.

What the model expects

The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Finland 57.5% to win, a draw 26.3%, and Belarus 16.2%. Its likeliest result is a Finland win; the model’s lean is Finland to win.

The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Finland and 0.5 for Belarus. For the total, it gives under 2.5 goals at 63.3% and over 2.5 goals at 36.6%. It puts both teams scoring at 33.6%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 66.4%.

The likeliest exact scores are 1-0 (17.5%), 0-0 (15.2%) and 2-0 (14.2%). The model’s forecast gives Finland the clearest route to the result, while retaining a goalless draw as a prominent possibility. Its expected-goals projection points to a larger contribution from Finland than Belarus.

More soccer news

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SoccerPreview· Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes GIL Vicente win the most likely result at 37.5%. Form, the table, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 1:45 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 72.7%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:00 PM ET

Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Form and standings

Finland sit 1st in Group 1 with 3 points from 1 game; Belarus sit 3rd in Group 1 with 0 points from 1 game. Finland sit above Belarus. The points totals underline the different positions the sides bring into this group fixture.

For Finland, the match offers a chance to build on their current place in the group. Belarus arrive on 0 points from 1 game. The table sets the context for the meeting, while the forecast also allows for a draw or a Belarus win.

Team news

No team news is on file, and line-ups are not announced yet.

What to watch

The key question is whether Finland can turn the model’s projected attacking edge into a winning scoreline. The leading exact-score outcomes include a Finland clean sheet, while the model’s both-teams-to-score estimate makes goals at both ends less prominent. A draw remains part of the picture, with the goalless scoreline among the model’s leading exact-score calls.

The bookmakers’ outcome ordering is a Finland win (58.1%), then a draw (25.8%), then a Belarus win (16.2%). On the model-to-market comparison, the model gives a Finland win 57.5%, in line with the bookmakers' 58.1%. The model’s stated lean remains Finland to win, and its forecast frames the match around Finland’s prospects of making their expected-goals advantage count.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Finland vs Belarus

Tue, Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET

Goalorithm's model

Finland
57.5%
Draw
26.3%
Belarus
16.3%
Over 2.5 goals
36.7%
Both teams score
33.6%

Likeliest scores

  • 1–0 17.5%
  • 0–0 15.2%
  • 2–0 14.2%

Bookmakers, margin removed

Finland 58.1% · Draw 25.8% · Belarus 16.2%

Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 68.8%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:30 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Lens vs Lyon in Ligue 1, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Lens win the most likely result at 37.4%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:45 PM ET