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GOALORITHM / FTB

Preview · Friendlies

Research workspace

Fiji vs New Caledonia Prediction & Preview (September 30)

Fiji vs New Caledonia in a friendly, Wednesday, September 30. Goalorithm's model makes Fiji win the most likely result at 38.3%. Form, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Full time: Fiji 2–1 New Caledonia. Read the match analysis →

Preview

Fiji host New Caledonia in a friendly on Wednesday, September 30 at 3:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm's model makes a Fiji win the likeliest outcome, but the three-way forecast also gives substantial space to a draw and a New Caledonia win.

What the model expects

The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Fiji 38.3%, a draw 28.6% and New Caledonia 33.1%; its ordering is a Fiji win (38.3%), then a New Caledonia win (33.1%), then a draw (28.6%). That makes a Fiji win the model's likeliest result, without placing either alternative far outside the forecast. The expected-goals figures are Fiji 1.1 and New Caledonia 0.9.

The goals outlook is under 2.5 goals at 67%, against over 2.5 goals at 33%. The model gives both teams scoring a 40.2% chance, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 59.8%. The likeliest exact score is 0-0 at 17.8%; the other leading scorelines are 1-0 at 13.1% and 1-1 at 12.2%. The score predictions point to a close contest, with a goalless draw among the outcomes the model identifies.

Form and standings

More soccer news

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SoccerPreview· Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes GIL Vicente win the most likely result at 37.5%. Form, the table, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 1:45 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 72.7%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:00 PM ET

Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Fiji's recent sequence is WLDLD, amounting to 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. The latest result in that run was a 2-0 home win against Papua New Guinea on September 27. The figures describe a mixed spell: the record contains a win, draws and defeats, while the goals scored and conceded are level. That gives context to the forecast's narrow expected-goals gap, rather than suggesting a large projected advantage for either side.

New Caledonia's sequence is LWLW, with 2 wins and 2 defeats and 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. The latest result was a 4-1 away defeat to Vanuatu on September 27. Those figures show an uneven run, with the goals conceded outnumbering those scored. The model nevertheless projects a close game, with its expected-goals figures keeping the sides near one another.

Head to head

Across the last 6 meetings, Fiji won 3, New Caledonia won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent meeting was Fiji 1-1 New Caledonia (November 2024). The series record includes wins for both teams and a drawn match, so the previous meetings offer no single-result pattern to carry into this fixture. The latest draw also gives a direct example of a meeting that ended level, though it does not determine what the model expects here.

What to watch

The central question is whether the match follows the model's low-scoring outlook or produces more goals than expected. Its leading scoreline is 0-0, while 1-0 and 1-1 are also among the model's most likely exact outcomes. The both-teams-to-score assessment likewise leaves a greater chance that at least one side does not find the net.

Recent results provide a contrast in immediate context: Fiji arrive after a 2-0 home win against Papua New Guinea on September 27, and New Caledonia after a 4-1 away defeat to Vanuatu on September 27. The model's forecast remains finely balanced, with a Fiji win (38.3%), then a New Caledonia win (33.1%), then a draw (28.6%) setting out its view of the possible results.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Fiji vs New Caledonia

Wed, Sep 30 · 3:00 AM ET

Goalorithm's model

Fiji
38.3%
Draw
28.6%
New Caledonia
33.1%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Both teams score
40.2%

Likeliest scores

  • 0–0 17.9%
  • 1–0 13.1%
  • 1–1 12.2%
Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 68.8%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:30 PM ET

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Preview (October 9)

Lens vs Lyon in Ligue 1, Friday, October 9. Goalorithm's model makes Lens win the most likely result at 37.4%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Fri, Oct 9 · 2:45 PM ET