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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Fiji 2-1 New Caledonia: Match Analysis & Model Review

Fiji 2-1 New Caledonia in a friendly, Wednesday, September 30: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Fiji recovered from a half-time deficit to beat New Caledonia 2-1 in a friendly, with goals from S. Wara and M. Dau overturning W. Read's opener. New Caledonia led at the interval, but Fiji scored twice after the break to secure the win.

The result was a 2-1 win for Fiji over New Caledonia. The scoring sequence ran from a New Caledonia lead to a Fiji equaliser and then a Fiji advantage. Fiji finished with two goals, while New Caledonia scored one goal.

How it unfolded

W. Read opened the scoring for New Caledonia in the 40th minute, making it 0-1. The goal gave New Caledonia the lead before the interval, and the teams went in at 0-1.

S. Wara brought Fiji level in the 50th minute, making it 1-1. M. Dau then scored for Fiji in the 66th minute, putting them ahead. The goals turned the match around after New Caledonia had led.

The numbers

Fiji had 67% possession, 2 shots and 1 shot on target, alongside 3 corners. New Caledonia recorded 33% possession, 2 shots and 1 shot on target, with 0 corners. There were three goals in all.

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The figures show a marked difference in possession, while the recorded shot and corner totals offer further context to the scoring. Fiji made its chances count, scoring twice; New Caledonia found the net once.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Fiji a win probability of 55.3%, a draw probability of 22.6% and a New Caledonia win probability of 22.1%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Fiji to win, and it assigned the actual result 55.3%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The forecast identified the outcome that arrived: Fiji won after falling behind. The match turned through a New Caledonia lead and a Fiji equaliser before Fiji went ahead, ending as a 2-1 win for Fiji over New Caledonia.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Fiji vs New Caledonia

Wed, Sep 30 · 3:00 AM ET · HFC Bank Stadium

Full time

2–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 40'W. Read0–1
  • 50'S. Wara1–1
  • 66'M. Dau2–1

The model before the game

Fiji
55.3%
Draw
22.6%
New Caledonia
22.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

FijiStatisticNew Caledonia
2shots2
3corners0
67%possession33%
1shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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