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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Bundesliga

Research workspace

FC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05: Match Analysis & Model Review

FC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Saturday, October 17: how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 18, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Schalke 04 0-1 in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 17, with a 1-0 win for FSV Mainz 05 over FC Schalke 04. The half-time score was 0-1, so the final scoreline was already in place by the interval. Mainz scored one goal; Schalke scored no goals, leaving one goal in all.

The result gives a clear account of the scoring: Mainz found the only goal, while Schalke did not score. The match finished with the same margin shown by the final score token, and there is no further scoring change between the half-time and full-time scorelines. Played at VELTINS-Arena, the contest ended in a win for the away side.

How it unfolded

The half-time score of 0-1 records Mainz in front at the break. The available match facts identify one goal for FSV Mainz 05 and no goals for FC Schalke 04, with one goal overall. That scoring leaves the away side with the match-winning goal and Schalke without a goal to bring the score level.

The scoreline at the interval and the final score are identical: 0-1 and 0-1. The result, therefore, was settled by the goal already reflected at half-time; no later change to the score is recorded in the match facts.

The numbers

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Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave FC Schalke 04 a win probability of 32.2%, a draw probability of 25.8% and an FSV Mainz 05 win probability of 42%. These are estimates of the three possible match outcomes, not a description of what had already happened. The actual result was a 1-0 win for FSV Mainz 05 over FC Schalke 04, with 42% attached to that outcome by the model.

The model had FSV Mainz 05 to win as its most likely outcome, and the match finished as a win for Mainz. The final score, 0-1, was the model's 1st-likeliest score. The score and outcome readings point to the same successful call: Mainz won, and the model's designated most likely score was the one recorded at full time.

How the model called it

Before the match, the model's most likely outcome was FSV Mainz 05 to win. It assigned that outcome 42%, and the model's most likely outcome happened. The final score 0-1 was also the model's 1st-likeliest score. Thus both the outcome call and the score ranking identified the result that appeared on the final whistle: FSV Mainz 05 won away to FC Schalke 04, with the only goal of the match.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

Sat, Oct 17 · 9:30 AM ET · VELTINS-Arena

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–1

The model before the game

FC Schalke 04
32.2%
Draw
25.8%
FSV Mainz 05
42%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

Open the Match Center

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